The Chinese government has come under fresh scrutiny over accusations that officials scrubbed crucial online data about the Wuhan Institute of Virology - the controversial laboratory suspected of being the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the Daily Mail, "hundreds of pages of information" spanning over 300 studies conducted by WIV have been wiped from a database, including some which discuss passing diseases from animals to humans - which were published online by the state-run National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), and are no longer available.
The deletion of key evidence has reignited fears that China is trying to whitewash the investigation into the origins of the virus.
It comes after President Xi Jinping last week blocked investigators from the World Health Organisation entering the country in a move that drew international condemnation. Meanwhile, state media outlets have published hundreds of stories claiming that the virus did not even originate in the city of Wuhan.
As part of the NSFC’s purge of online studies, it has deleted all reference to those carried out by Shi Zhengli, the Wuhan-based virologist who has earned the nickname Batwoman for her trips to gather samples in bat caves.
Studies key to any investigation into the source of the virus, including one into the risk of cross-species infection from bats with Sars-like coronaviruses, and another looking at human pathogens carried by bats, have also disappeared. -Daily Mail
Zhengli came under fire in 2015 over her controversial 'gain-of-function' research creating chimeric bat viruses designed to infect humans (but suggesting that an emergent coronavirus that's over 96% similar to a bat coronavirus could have escaped from Zhengli's lab is a conspiracy theory).
According to former UK Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith - a member of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, the revelations are yet another example of a Chinese coverup.
"China is clearly trying to hide the evidence," he said, adding "It is vital that there is a thorough investigation into what happened but China seems to be doing all it can to stop that happening. We don’t know what was going on in that laboratory. It may well be the case that they played around with bat coronaviruses and made some kind of mistake. Unless China opens itself up to scrutiny, the world will assume they have something to hide."
The Mail notes that this isn't the first time the WIV has been accused of suppressing critical evidence regarding the origins of the virus.
Days before the WHO was alerted to the outbreak of Sars-like pneumonia cases in Wuhan in December 2019, the Wuhan Institute of Virology began altering its database of viral pathogens.
The Wildlife-borne Viral Pathogen Database was unique because it included information on virus variants in other wild animals.
Among the changes, which experts believe were made to throw investigators off the scent, keywords such as ‘wildlife’ or ‘wild animals’ were deleted.
The title was changed from Wildlife-borne Viral Pathogen Database to Bat And Rodent-borne Viral Pathogen Database. The term ‘wild animal’ was replaced with ‘bat and rodent’ or ‘bat and rat’. -Daily Mail
Notably, the alteration occurred two days before a gene sequencing lab was reportedly ordered by the Health and Medical Commission of Hubei Province to destroy samplesof the new disease and withhold information.
According to the report, the alterations - conducted on the evening of Dec. 30 - were substantial, and occurred the day before the CCP notified the World Health Organization about the outbreak of a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.
The primary database contact is none other than Zhengli - who was in Shanghai for a conference in late 2019 when she was summoned back to Wuhan to deal with the outbreak which had been detected in two pneumonia patients. While on the overnight train back to Wuhan, the database was altered.
"It looks like a rushed, inconsistent effort to disassociate the project from the outbreak by rebranding it," according to the UK intelligence analyst who discovered the alterations. "It’s a strange thing to do within hours of being informed of a novel-coronavirus outbreak."
"If the WIV had found the missing link between bat virus RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2 [the coronavirus that causes COVID-19] from an animal vector, it would have been in Shi’s database," he added.
Purged records and destroyed samples don't exactly instill confidence.
With the world on the cusp of passing 90MM cases (the tally was 89.7MM as of Sunday morning in New York), the US is finally starting to see new cases move off their record highs. On Saturday, the US reported 262K new virus cases, down slightly from tallies earlier in the week.
In the US, the past week saw more new cases, deaths and hospitalizations than any prior week during the US outbreak.
The record 21,752 deaths over the past week were reported across the US.
California remains in a dire state, reporting more than 40K new cases a day (almost as much as the UK is reporting daily)with more than 400 new deaths. Hospitals, especially in the southern part of the state, are badly overcrowded, and ambulances are still sometimes left waiting for hours.
Here's some more COVID news overnight:
Iran recorded 71 deaths from Covid-19 over the last 24 hours, its lowest daily toll since June 13. The number of daily new cases rose to 5,968 from 5,924 on Saturday. The country now has 56,171 coronavirus fatalities in 1,286,406 confirmed infections, the Health Ministry reported (Source: Bloomberg).
Four in five Germans think the Covid lockdown measures are appropriate or should be strengthened (56% and 25%, respectively), according to a survey commissioned by Bild am Sonntag (Source: Bloomberg).
An online car hailing platform of DiDi Chuxing was fined 340,000 yuan ($53,000) for failing to implement the government’s requirements on coronavirus prevention, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport said at a briefing Sunday (Source: Bloomberg).
Poland reported 177 new Covid deaths on Sunday, with 9,410 new coronavirus cases recorded. The country has already vaccinated more than 200,000 people and is planning shots for a further 250,000 in the week to come, which would take inoculations beyond 1% of Poland’s population (Source: Bloomberg).
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Finally, another big story today comes out of Japan, where a new mutant strain has been discovered that might be just as infectious as the strains discovered in South Africa and the UK.
Michael Sherwin, acting U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, said that his office has started a federal, excessive force investigation over the shooting and killing of former U.S. Air Force veteran Ashli Babbitt in the Capitol on Jan. 6.
Sherwin confirmed the investigation with CBS News.
His civil rights section will lead the prosecution, which is being investigated by D.C. police and the FBI.
The Epoch Times hasn’t been able to independently verify the investigation.
The U.S. Attorney Office of the District of Columbia refused to comment on the reported investigation.
The FBI and The U.S. Capitol Police (USCP) didn’t respond to a request for comment.
#CapitolRiots NEW: US Attorney Michael Sherwin confirms @CBSNews his office has opened a formal, federal excessive force investigation related to the shooting death of Ashli Babbitt who was shot by US Capitol Police Wednesday within the Capitol building. Sherwin has assigned
On Jan. 6, Trump supporters marched on foot to the Capitol after President Donald Trump gave a speech near the White House. Trump thanked his supporters for being present and listed a series of voting irregularities that happened in different states, alleging there was widespread fraud. Rudy Giuliani, the president’s attorney, also gave a speech listing evidence for the alleged fraud.
A man in a widely circulated video of the shooting of U.S. Air Force veteran Ashli Babbitt, 28-year-old Thomas Baranyi, later gave a recount of what happened.
A reporter from CBS affiliate WKRG interviewed him after he stormed the Capitol with protestors and Ashli Babbitt.
“We had stormed into the chambers inside and there was a young lady who rushed to the windows,” Baranyi said “A number of police and Secret Service were saying ‘get back, get down, get out of the way.’ She didn’t heed the call.”
He said that he tried to pull her back when she got fatally shot.
“And as we kind of raced up to grab people and pull them back, they shot her in the neck, and she fell back on me and started to say she was fine. It’s cool. And then she started moving weird and blood was coming out of her mouth and neck and nose,” Baranyi said.
“Just make sure people know, because this cannot stand anymore. This is wrong. They don’t represent anyone. Not Republican, Democrat, Independent, nobody. And now they’ll just, they’ll kill people,” Baranyi added.
Tony Mazziott, Babbitt’s grandfather, told ABC News’ “Good Morning America” that she was an “excellent patriot” and a “loving person.”
“She served time in the military and she’s passionate about everything, particularly Donald Trump for some reason,” he said. Family members said Babbitt served more than a decade in the Air Force.
Update (2210 ET): Parler CEO John Matze has issued a statement (emphasis ours):
Sunday (tomorrow) at midnight Amazon will be shutting off all of our servers in an attempt to completely remove free speech off the internet. There is the possibility Parler will be unavailable on the internet for up to a week as we rebuild from scratch. We prepared for events like this by never relying on amazons proprietary infrastructure and building bare metal products.
We will try our best to move to a new provider right now as we have many competing for our business, however Amazon, Google and Apple purposefully did this as a coordinated effort knowing our options would be limited and knowing this would inflict the most damage right as President Trump was banned from the tech companies.
This was a coordinated attack by the tech giants to kill competition in the market place. We were too successful too fast. You can expect the war on competition and free speech to continue, but don’t count us out.
#speakfreely
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Update (2130 ET): And so the hammer has come down late on Saturday, when Amazon officially kicked Parler off its cloud Web hosting service, AWS according to Buzzfeed. The suspension means that once the ban takes effect on Sunday, the website - which as of this moment is still up - will be offline until it finds someone else to host it.
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Update (2100 ET): As expected, Apple removed Parler permanently from its app store on Saturday. "[T]here is no place on our platform for threats of violence and illegal activity," the iPhone maker said, according to CNN which adds that Apple notified Parler of its decision in a message that said it had violated the company's app store terms.
"The processes Parler has put in place to moderate or prevent the spread of dangerous and illegal content have proved insufficient," Apple told Parler. "Specifically, we have continued to find direct threats of violence and calls to incite lawless action in violation of Guideline 1.1 - Safety - Objectionable Content."
Apple's notice said Parler's responses to an earlier warning were inadequate, including Parler's defense that it had been taking violent rhetoric on its platform "very seriously for weeks" and that it had a moderation plan "for the time being," according to Apple.
A search for the Parler app as of 8pm showed that the app was no longer there, with the search query returning recommended substitutes:
"Parler has not taken adequate measures to address the proliferation of these threats to people's safety," Apple said in a statement to CNN Business. "We have suspended Parler from the App Store until they resolve these issues."
Apple's decision follows a similar move by Google to drop Parler from the Google Play Store, and after Amazon (AMZN) has come under pressure by its own employees to stop hosting Parler's website on Amazon Web Services.
John Matze, Parler's CEO, wrote in a message on his platform that Apple "will be banning Parler until we give up free speech, institute broad and invasive policies like Twitter and Facebook and we become a surveillance platform by pursuing guilt of those who use Parler before innocence."
"They claim it is due to violence on the platform," Matze wrote of Apple, whom he also accused of being a "software monopoly," a particularly relevant attack right now given an ongoing antitrust suit against Apple from Fortnite maker Epic Games. "The community disagrees as we hit number 1 on their store today."
Matze promised to share "more details about our next plans coming soon as we have many options."
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Earlier:
A coalition of Amazon corporate employees have demanded that the Seattle-based megacorp kick Parler off the Amazon Web Services (AWS) platform unless 'posts inciting violence' are removed, which would force the Trump-friendly Twitter competitor to find another host.
According to CNBC, an employee advocacy group - Amazon Employees for Climate Justice - said in a Saturday tweet that AWS should "deny Parler services until it removes posts inciting violence, including at the Presidential inauguration."
Enough is enough. Amazon hosts Parler on @awscloud.
As Amazon workers, we demand Amazon deny Parler services until it removes posts inciting violence, including at the Presidential inauguration.
We cannot be complicit in more bloodshed and violent attacks on our democracy.
Amazon Employees For Climate Justice (@AMZNforClimate) January 9, 2021
More via CNBC:
Pressure has been mounting for Amazon to stop hosting Parler on AWS after other tech giants took action against the social media app in the wake of the deadly U.S. Capitol riot earlier this week. Google on Friday removed Parler from its app store for Android users, Google Play Store. BuzzFeed News reported on Friday that Apple has threatened to pull Parler from its App Store.
Parler, which launched in 2018, has emerged as a popular platform for President Trump’s allies in the last year by billing itself as a free speech alternative to mainstream social media services like Twitter and Facebook. -CNBC
To justify censoring Parler, critics have pointed to posts calling for 'firing squads' - like one from attorney Lin Wood (who some sayhanded the Senate to the Democrats by openly calling for Georgians not to vote in the runoff election unless the GOP candidates backed Trump's election fraud claims).
In 2019, Amazon pulled the plug on their AWS partnership with Twitter alternative GAB over user posts. CEO Andrew Torba essentially blamed the CIA - claiming that a "PSYOP campaign started back in early December" in which newly created accounts were "popping up out of nowhere and making threats of violence."
Torba's letter continues:
After this week, it's clear why this PSYOP was started: to take down alt-tech platforms and frame them for the January 6th protests that ended with the police killing an unarmed woman.
Almost instantly after police allowed protestors into the Capitol the New York Times started a baseless narrative that this protest was organized on alt-tech sites, and in particular on Gab, without offering any proof, screenshots, usernames, or evidence to back these baseless claims. I've recorded a video highlighting how this all played out. I hope you'll take some time to watch it to learn how the CIA Mockingbird Media complex operates. The way we fight back is with truth and by speaking truth to their power, which is quickly fading.
Meanwhile, Parler has jumped to the #1 app in Apple's app store.
Parler saw approximately 210,000 installs globally on Friday 1/8, up 281% from approximately 55,000 on 1/7, according to data from the analytics service Sensor Tower. “In the U.S., the app saw approximately 182,000 first-time downloads on 1/8, up 355% from about 40,000 installs on 1/7. Since Wednesday, the app has seen approximately 268,000 installs from across U.S. app stores,” a press rep from Sensor Tower wrote in an email. -TechCrunch
And as conservatives scramble to download the app before it's deplatformed at yet another social media giant, we now have to wonder if they'll even be able to find a new home among a collusive constellation of big-tech - at least one of which used to value the phrase 'think different.'
As paranoia surrounding the dawn of new COVID "variants" reaches a fever pitch, local scientists are claiming that the Japanese Health Ministry said it had tracked down yet another variant of COVID-19 partly similar to the strains from the UK and South Africa, which are believed to be more contagious and linked to a spike in infections and potentially linked to rising numbers in the UK.
According to local media reports cited by RT, the mutant strain was found in four people who flew into Japan from Brazil. The passengers tested positive for COVID-19 in an airport quarantine, per the ministry of health. The news comes as officials in the US insist that reports about a similarly dangerous variant being isolated in the US were actually false.
Japan's new variant was detected by themNational Institute of Infectious Diseases, which has thoroughly studied the samples taken from the four travelers mentioned above.
Virologists claim that the new mutations found in Japan bear certain similarities to the mutant strains from the UK and Germany.
The discovery comes at a particularly difficult time for Japan, which is weighing an extension of its state of emergency now that cases are rising sharply in its No. 2 city, Osaka.
Even after imposing travel bans on the UK, the mutated strain first isolated in Britain has been tracked to Japan.
Since the start of the pandemic, Japan has recorded more than 283,000 infections and over 3,800 deaths related to the coronavirus.
Despite publishing all those pieces dismissing the risks that COVID-19 mutations could complicate the vaccination process, the NYT pointed out yesterday in a piece that "scientists have discovered worrisome new variants of the virus, leading to border closures, quarantines and lockdowns, and dousing some of the enthusiasm that arrived with the vaccines."
In the UK, it's believed the new mutant variant is responsible for 60% of cases being discovered in London.
The upshot of this onslaught of new viruses, according to the NYT, is quite clear: It will take years to vaccinate enough people to stop the spread of COVID-19. In the meantime, masks and strict social distancing requirements will be the order of the day.
Despite vaccine-makers' insistence that their shots will protect against infection from the new variants, the NYT insists that the vaccine alone will not be enough to get ahead of the virus: It will take years to inoculate enough people to limit its evolution. In the meantime, social distancing, mask-wearing and hand-washing - coupled with aggressive testing, tracking and tracing - might buy some time and avert devastating spikes in hospitalizations and deaths along the way.
These strategies could still "turn the tide" against the virus, one NYT expert source said.
But if that were true, wouldn't it have happened already.
Social, cultural, and behavioral patterns create economic forces evident in the buying and selling of goods and services. The pandemic shocked demand and supply channels of the real economy causing social, relationship, geographic and financial dislocations. These dislocations have changed social behavior, desires, relationships, and expectations temporarily and, in other cases, permanently. The crisis created profitable opportunities for some businesses and jobs for workers. Yet, other companies experienced losses, debt, and threats to survival. The pandemic is a once in one hundred year event. As such, there is limited experience and knowledge about the economic consequences of shelter in place lockdowns and health policy. However, we can see critical social, cultural, and behavioral forces begin to emerge.
Looking Back At 2020 To Look Ahead at 2021
To understand how the 2021 economy may unfold, we have identified five fundamental driving forces that shaped the real economy in 2020. Some of these forces are driving the economy while others are weak retarding growth. The key forces are the virus, jobs engine, work-from-home migration, housing debt bubble, and trade. The status of each force is examined with suggested indicators to monitor.
1. Virus
The virus continues to be the controlling factor in the economy as it penetrates every aspect of social life.The virus fractures the U.S. economy as it suffocates social activity. Health care providers are in crisis mode as I.C.U. capacity is at near-zero levels across hotspot states like California and New York. As such, Health officials implemented more restrictive lockdowns of non-essential businesses, indoor gathering places like restaurants and bars, and entertainment venues. The rate of infections is at the highest level recorded since the March emergency declaration. Dr. Jeff Smith, medical officer for Santa Clara County, California, summarized the staggering number of deaths in this way: “It’s as if we have the loss of life that we had for 9/11 each day.”
Source: The New York Times – 12/31/20
Vaccinations Fail To Hit Inoculation Targets
COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderns were produced in record time and approved for distribution in early December. Federal officials set a goal of vaccinating 20M health workers and the elderly by December 31st. Yet, the distribution and injection program has been a failure by achieving only 15% of that goal or 2.8M doses by year-end.
The Biden administration has set a goal of 100M doses in the first 100 days after the presidential inaugural on January 20th. If state and federal government vaccination programs come close to 90% of the 100M goal in inoculating people, it may reach the tipping point of control. Thus, the impact of the virus may decline by late spring or summer. We can recognize the tipping point when people stop worrying about catching the virus and venture out of their homes. The boost in consumer confidence will trigger new economic activity.
Indicators To Monitor: Look for a steady decline in virus cases and deaths over weeks and months, increased capacity of I.C.U.s, rapid rise in vaccinations, the achievement of 70 – 80% of the population vaccinated for herd immunity, and a steady rise in consumer mobility as people begin to venture out into the community.
2. Jobs Engine
The executives’ expectations that business revenues, profits, and markets will show consistent long term growth fuels the jobs engine. Job losses have surged to extent that 19M workers are on continuing unemployment rolls. Yet, most professional employees can work from home and maintain employment. The number of jobs increased for warehouse workers, transport workers, and couriers supporting e-commerce. Yet, steep job declines of 70 – 80% occurred in the hospitality industry, including restaurants, bars, gift shops, and rental car firms. Small businesses in core cities like New York and San Francisco experienced 70 – 80% declines in sales. And, as the pandemic wore on, workers furloughed began to see their jobs permanently terminated. Accordingly, the shift to permanent layoffs is evident in the increasing number of workers on extended unemployment benefits programs.
Sources: Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics, The Daily Shot – 12/18/20
10.7M Jobs Gap
The economy has lost 22M jobs since February. The CARES Act and Federal Reserve injections of liquidity have spurred job growth to regain about 12M jobs. Therefore, there still is a 10.7M job growth gap since the pandemic hit the U.S. This gap in job growth will continue to put a drag on the recovery.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – 11/15/20
Congress moved to close the job loss gap by passing the $900B Bipartisan COVID Relief Act in December. The law includes a one-time $600 payment to most Americans, an extension of unemployment benefits for 11 weeks, an additional $300 weekly unemployment benefit, and $319B in Payroll Protection Loans and small business funding.
Will The $900B Stimulus Bill Increase Hiring?
The question remains, will the $900B stimulus bill be enough to increase hiring? Consumers did increase spending with CARES Act $1, 200 checks buying cars, appliances, and internet services. But, executives lack confidence in consistent business growth, which would trigger hiring. A recent survey of 238 CEOs showed that 64% planned labor force reductions in the next year. The survey responses were collected before the relief bill passed. But, experts at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve analyzed hiring in past recessions and found that recessions accelerated automation and slowed hiring. The report noted:
“Since the 1980s, almost all employment losses in routine occupations, which are relatively easier to be automated, occurred during recessions. Automatable jobs held by minority workers were hit particularly hard by the pandemic, putting these workers who were already vulnerable in the job market at a greater risk of permanent job loss.”
Executives will remain hesitant to resume hiring until substantial domestic spending growth is evident for 3 – 6 months. Also, management at S&P 100 companies dependent on international sales for 60 – 70% of their growth will be looking for global markets to open, travel to resume, and orders to increase consistently. We are skeptical that executives will quickly ‘bounce back’ into firm hiring action even after vaccinations reach herd immunity levels. The herd immunity level is a necessary first step in recovery. But it is not sufficient to shift a manager’s perspective that sales are on a strong growth track.
There Are Growth Opportunities
However, there are growth opportunities amid the crisis and its aftermath. The economy’s growth is likely to be highly unevenly, skewed to upper-income consumer spending and work from home digitally based markets. New small business applications are up 20 – 25% as entrepreneurs identify new business opportunities for services businesses, and pandemic triggered demand. Plus, the Biden campaign has proposed a $2.4T clean energy infrastructure investment in bridges, roads, renewable energy systems, and grid improvements. If enacted, Moody’s Analytics estimates that it will create 18.6M jobs to focus on small business development while holding major corporations accountable for clean energy standard compliance. A slim Democrat majority in the House of 5 votes and a divided Senate make the passage of a significant bill unlikely.
Indicators To Monitor: C.E.O. Confidence in sales growth, and hiring, Department of Labor State Unemployment reports for decreases in initial and continuing unemployment in parallel to increases in job openings, small business hiring reporting from Homebase, surveys of worker expectations for having a job in the next 6 – 12 months. The Census Household Pulse Survey, Opportunity Insights Track the Recovery.
3. Work-From-Home Migration
Sixty-seven million workers are estimated to be working from home today, or about 44% of the workforce. Over 240k workers have moved out of the top five metro urban cities since the pandemic started. Professionals who had saved up to buy a home saw an opportunity to move to a less expensive area and spend more time with their families. New and existing home sales have surged through the spring and summer and are now declining as this buyer segment has made the moves they plan to make.
The latest report from Kastle Systems, a key fob security firm, shows 2,600 buildings in the top ten metro areas at an average occupancy rate of 22.9% for the week of December 21st. Occupancy rates range from 37% in the Dallas metro to 12% for New York City.
Source: Kastle Systems – 12/21/20
Small Businesses Struggle, CRE Valuations Drop
The work-from-home (WFH) migration has impacted small businesses in core cities like New York and San Francisco, where sales dropped 60 -70%. We noted in our post on commercial real estate valuations, that there is a real probability that property valuations will drop due to high vacancy rates. A recent survey by the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) of 238 corporations showed that executives expect 20% of their employees to permanently work from home. The lack of office space demand is a massive headwind for the commercial real estate market and a drag on the recovery. In our post, we noted:
“Thus, if 20% of employees WFH will mean a 20% reduction in office space requirements nationwide. In the same survey, employers expected to bring back only 16% of permanently laid-off workers. Managers will look for ways to reduce office space costs by increasing the number of employees who WFH. Executives will find WFH an excellent way to increase profit margins. Therefore, corporations are interested in leveraging WFH culture and are doing it with fewer employees overall.”
The Long Term Impact of WFH Is Unknown
The economic impact of millions of employees working from home has yet to be determined. However, trends are emerging, showing permanently working from home professionals, accelerated software automation, and small business sales losses. Offsetting these trends are entrepreneurs working on attractions to bring people back into core cities and managers requiring workers to return to the office. The recently passed stimulus bill will provide relief to workers and help to stabilize the economy. But, the funding will not change the migration out of core cities. Conversely, the relief money may trigger a second wave of moves from additional employees looking to lower living costs.
Indicators to Monitor: Kastle Systems Occupancy Barometer, surveys of employee interest in working from home, social mobility tracking data gathered from smartphones as people travel to inner cities, commercial real estate company delinquency rates, rate of defaults on office space loans, bond values for office space companies.
4. Housing Debt Bubble
A $90 – 100B debt bubble has grown since March for renters and low-income homeowners out of work. This debt bubble is above the ongoing payments that renters and homeowners need to pay monthly. About 12M renters faced eviction for January 2021. The December relief bill extended an eviction moratorium signed by President Trump in August based on C.D.C. virus containment to January 31st. Also, the bill provides $25B in funding for a renter assistance fund. The move does not offer much time for renters to pay back debt and bring monthly payments current. The total amount of aid is inadequate for the massive size of the debt bubble. Unemployed renter households have an average of $5,379 of debt accrued since March.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, The Washington Post – 12/7/20
Sixty-five percent of renters behind on payments have resorted to credit cards to pay their rent bill. Credit card debt is surging for renters. The predicament creates the possibility that renters will be evicted and become delinquent on their credit cards. Delinquency on their credit cards will trigger a reduction in their credit rating. With a low credit rating, renters will have difficulty renting again once the economy begins growing.
Small Business Landlords Are Financially Stressed
Landlords receive no funding from the December relief act. Small business landlords who own 22M of the 44M multi-unit buildings gaining new funding or loans are crucial. A November UC Berkeley study reported that 40% of small business landlords were not confident they could make mortgage payments in the next few months. We noted in our post about the Housing Debt Bubble that a solution must be found fast:
“…, small business landlords may evict tenants to find a paying renter… finding another paying tenant could be problematic. Small business landlords facing declining income and poor prospects for new paying tenants will likely default on their mortgage. There is likely to be a surge in multi-unit buildings for sale, causing a decline in multi-unit building construction.”
The $25B in aid to renters and $600 stimulus checks may mitigate a wave of evictions over the next few months. However, the huge debt remains.
Homeowner Delinquencies Are Increasing
Low-income homeowners continue to have difficulty making payments as mortgage delinquencies jumped to 8.2% last August from 6.1% in July. Delinquencies have stabilized with more forbearance lender agreements.
Black Knight reports that 3M mortgages were in forbearance as of last November. Eighty percent of those homeowners have requested a six-month extension providing more time to find funding until March 2021. Without further assistance, they will likely default on their mortgage and causing a forced sale or foreclosure.
Indicators to Monitor: renter surveys of percentage missing next month’s payments, Mortgage Banker Association reports on total mortgage debt, forbearance totals, and delinquencies and defaults, landlord multi-unit outstanding debt, landlord defaults, number of evictions.
5. Trade
Broad-based tariffs on China have resulted in the highest trade deficit in U.S. – China trade history. The trade imbalance with China was supposed to grow smaller due to broad tariffs on Chinese goods. Instead, the trade imbalance surged as U.S. consumers continued to buy Chinese goods. While U.S. companies faced declining market share and sales as a result of retaliatory tariffs.
Source: Bloomberg, The Daily Shot – 12/5/20
‘America First’ Has Become ‘America Isolated’
The program to put ‘America First’ has become ‘America Isolated’ while other countries set up new trade ties. On December 30th, the European Union and China announced a trade investment agreement negotiated over the past decade. The agreement paves the way for German car manufacturers to lower costs while making it easier to access Chinese buyers. China is now the European Unions’ number one trade partner with $590B in total trade in 2020. The U.S. fell out of first place as an EU trade partner.
Four years ago, when the U.S. left the Transpacific Partnership Pact, the Chinese took America’s place with 12 South East Asian countries. As a result, China has expanded the agreement to include three more countries in a new pact. The pact is called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP. The agreement calls for lowering trade tariffs, easing customs entry, and standardizing trade protocols. The deal includes all the ASEAN trade countries, Australia and New Zealand, along with China. The RCEP is the world’s largest trade bloc of 2.2 billion people and G.D.P. of 26.2T.
To improve trade, the Trump administration successfully renegotiated the NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico. Accordingly, the new agreement provides more access for U.S. farmers to North American markets, ensures job protections domestically, and increases U.S. content of manufactured goods.
World trade will fall by 13 to 32 %, depending on whether the optimistic or pessimistic forecasts prove true for 2020. The World Trade Organization (W.T.O.) forecast 2021 calls for a year to year increase of 5%.
Source: W.T.O. – 6/12/20
However, the W.T.O. sees virus containment, increased trade restrictions, and general deterioration of trade relations as significant headwinds for trade growth.
World Trade Growth Is Critical To Global U.S. Corporations
World trade growth has been a critical growth engine for U.S. multi-national corporations. S & P 100 companies realize 60 % of their sales and 70 – 80% of total profits from overseas operations. With world trade uncertain, U.S. corporations will seek to replace weak international sales with domestic customers. But, the U.S. economy is in a deep recession now and will likely take at least a year or two to recover fully. It is likely to be 4 or 5 years to return to pre-pandemic employment levels based on previous deep recession history. The U.S. consumer provides 30% of world consumer spending. Thus, executives looking for growth overseas to jump-start U.S. sales may be disappointed.
Biden Administration Will Focus on Rebuilding Global Partnerships
The Biden campaign proposes to bring the U.S. back into the international world order. The first step is rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement. Plus, the Biden government will fulfill obligations to fund the World Health Organization and the World Trade Organization. Yet, the new Democratic administration has signaled that it will not reverse all the present trade barriers with China. So, U.S. companies will have difficulty navigating an uncertain trade relationship in a 1 billion consumer market. It will be a slow grind to retool trade relations with China. Trade relationships take years to build and sustain, so we do not expect international trade to provide economic tailwinds anytime soon.
Indicators to Watch: W.T.O. trade volume, Canada and Mexico to U.S. trade volume and sales, U.S. company international sales, multi-national trade agreements, trade deficit – export and imports, global sales and profits for companies like Apple, Microsoft, Applied Materials, Intel, and other high technology firms.
Major Obstacles Remain To Achieve a Solid 2021 Recovery
The $900B stimulus bill is a band-aid for the 2021 economy. The liquidity injection is not a cure for the pandemic induced recession. Intelligently structured, innovative initiatives are required. Plus, to shift the economy onto a recovery track, trillions of dollars need to be invested.
Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economist at Allianz, notes the need for policymakers to do the economic structural work necessary for a healthy recovery:
“The immediate injection of fiscal relief should help moderate what recent data suggest is an accelerating loss of momentum for the economic recovery. But it will not alter significantly the general direction of the bumpy road in the short term. Nor will it do much to offset the longer-term risks to economic, social, and institutional well-being.”
Significant headwinds are picking up strength:
Too Slow A Vaccination Program To Achieve Herd Immunity by Summer
The Jobs Engine Is Stalled or Shut down For Many Sectors
WFH Migration Hollows Out Core Cities:
– Creating Huge Vacant CRE and Driving Small Business Closings
Housing Debt Bubble Ready to Burst
Trade Sales & Profits Will Be Slow to Return
The bottom line is the virus still is in control of the economy. Until the virus is under control, the recovery will continue to sputter. Plus, permanent changes to social, geographic, and spending patterns will dislocate existing companies if they don’t change their business models quickly. The Federal Reserve will continue to provide liquidity. However, the Federal Reserve is propping up zombie companies, speculative hedge funds, junk bonds, and high risk real estate loans. Will the Fed have enough monetary firepower to support real investment initiatives if they pass in the next Congress?
Will the Biden Administration Be Successful in Passing Stimulus Bills?
If the Biden Administration can pass major fiscal legislation, then the economy will likely recover quickly.The first six months of the new administration’s work to control the virus, pass fiscal initiatives, and apply innovative policymaking will set the stage for a recovery. Or, a lack of federal leadership will lead to a stalling economy that continues to lose jobs, cut profits, and undermine asset valuations.
It appears Beijing and Hong Kong's pro-mainland security services have been little deterred by the recent targeted Trump administration sanctions of officials involved in enforcing the controversial national security law, designed to essentially given Hong Kong carte blanche in cracking down on local independence related activism.
This past week authorities moved for the first time to block access to a popular website used by Hong Kong-based activists. According to Reuters:
The website, HKChronicles, said it began receiving reports from Hong Kong-based users saying they were no longer able to access the site as of late Wednesday.
"After discussing and investigating with our supporters, we found that some ISPs of Hong Kong have deliberately dropped any connection to our servers, so that the user could not receive replies from our servers, resulting in an inability to access our content," chief editor Naomi Chan said in a statement.
And further, South China Morning Post is now confirming on Sunday that "Hong Kong police had invoked the city’s national security law for the first time to block HKChronicles."
"The police force had started asking ISPs to halt access, citing Article 43 of the law, the newspaper reported," Reuters continues.
The blocked access appears to have corresponded with the latest spate of arrests that shook the semi-autonomous city starting on Wednesday, wherein prominent activists like Joshua Wong reportedly had their homes raided. An American lawyer was also detained.
The timing is fascinating given what's now happening in the United States in the wake of this week's Capitol Hill chaos. Big American tech and social media companies like Google, Apple, and Facebook are acting in concert to ban not only President Trump, but also undertake a mass purge of conservative and 'alt-news' accounts.
Chinese, Russian, as well as independent media have lately called attention to the US double standard when it comes to how mass protests and the storming of government buildings are treated and presented in foreign countries vs. at home.
Must watch video shows the identical nature of US-government funded rioters who stormed the Hong Kong legislature and Trump’s mob that rioted in the US capitol. Via @taro_taylorpic.twitter.com/CnTPaMOzpb
Hong Kongers are hailed as heroes, with Nacy Pelosi herself calling HK unrest "a beautiful sight" while pro-Trumpers on this side of the globe are condemned as "insurrectionists" and even as "domestic terrorists".
Is there any doubt that Beijing will justify its own Hong Kong web crackdown it light of the same kind of 'purge' now ongoing in North America?
Hong Kong police have yet to either confirm or deny the website blockage.
However, the irony is thick in this statement via Reuters given the current crackdown in America: "The Hong Kong and Beijing governments say it is vital to plug holes in national security defenses exposed by months of sometimes-violent anti-government and anti-China protests that rocked the global financial hub in 2019."
Any effort to impeach the president for comments made to Washington demonstrators would be flatly unconstitutional...
The Constitution permits impeachment and removal of the president for “Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”
There’s no reasonable claim that President Donald Trump’s speech, which largely focused on disputed, but credible, claims of election irregularities, was treasonous or involved a bribe. And in the absence of proof of deliberate incitement to riot, it wasn’t a “high Crime.”
So, as in the former Trump impeachment, the only potential basis for removal from office would be commission of a “high … Misdemeanor.” (We know from founding-era evidence that in the Constitution the adjective “high” modifies “Misdemeanor” as well as “Crime.”)
The previous impeachment proceedings were marked by a debate over the meaning of the phrase “high misdemeanor.” Each of the four academic experts who testified at the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee offered their own definitions. The prosecutors and the president’s defense team offered their own definitions, too.
This disagreement reflected an academic dispute that had been going on for many years. Based on incomplete surveys of the founding-era record and on British impeachment trials, researchers had reached very different conclusions about the meaning of “high misdemeanor.”
Unfortunately, however, almost no researcher (including me) had thought to examine the sources that might define the phrase authoritatively. Those sources were 18th century English and American law books.
The Constitution is first and foremost a legal document the “supreme Law of the Land.” Most of its framers were lawyers, as were most of those who explained it to the general public. Moreover, at the time the American general public was unusually knowledgeable about law.
Thus, if the phrase “high misdemeanors” had a clear legal meaning and no other clear meaning, then we would expect the legal meaning to control. In this respect, the phrase “high misdemeanors” would be like other recognized legal terms in the Constitution: “Habeas Corpus,” “Equity,” “bail,” “Privileges and Immunities,” and so forth.
The Trump impeachment proceedings inspired me to undertake a comprehensive survey of founding-era legal sources to see if “high misdemeanors” had a defined legal meaning. If it did, that would resolve the long-standing debate.
In constitutional research, the sources frequently don’t yield overwhelming, one-sided evidence for an indisputable result. But it happened here. I was very surprised by this outcome, which contradicted what I had written previously. Nevertheless, I quickly admitted my mistake and duly published (pdf) the new findings.
It turns out that “high misdemeanor” was in fact a precisely defined legal term: It meant “serious crimes not meriting the death penalty.”
Here’s the background:
In 18th century England and America, the legal word “misdemeanor” technically included all crimes of any level of gravity. The most serious misdemeanors were denominated felonies (or high crimes). Felonies traditionally were punishable by death. The most serious felony was treason, and a person convicted of treason usually suffered a particularly horrible death: a man was drawn and quartered; a woman was drawn and burnt.
Lesser felonies at common law there were nine of them traditionally were punished by hanging. Examples are murder, rape, burglary, and robbery. (Happily, I can report that by the time of the founding, first offenders often received more lenient sentences.)
Serious offenses other than treason and felony were punished by prison time and by heavy fines rather than by death. These offenses included, among others, bribery, attempted murder, assisting a duel, certain kinds of blackmail, and so forth. Offenses in this category were called great misdemeanors, great misprisions, or high misdemeanors.
Lesser offenses were simply called “misdemeanors.”
This criminal-law usage arose in England, but it was followed in America as well. For example, in my research I uncovered several congressional statutes passed in the 1790s that designated serious crimes as “high misdemeanors” and imposed penalties accordingly. As in England, Congress labeled lesser crimes merely as “misdemeanors.”
So a “high misdemeanor” was a serious crime not meriting the death penalty. The icing on the cake from this conclusion was that it resolved some other questions that had puzzled scholars as well. And it explained the structure of the Constitution’s Impeachment Clause: the words “Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors” provide one example of a high crime (treason), one example of a high misdemeanor (bribery), and include generic clauses covering other crimes in the same two categories.
Observe what is excluded from the grounds for impeachment. Congress may not impeach and remove for a minor crime. Nor may it do so because an officer is reckless, negligent, or has obnoxious political opinions. The constitutional penalty for those breaches is, for lesser officers, removal by the president and, for the president and vice-president, re-election defeat.
It’s significant that in the biennium since these findings were published, no scholar has even attempted to rebut them. Nor can they be convincingly rebutted, given the volume and consistency of the evidence.
While debate over the meaning of the term continued, the House of Representatives could reasonably assume that non-criminal behavior could constitute a “high misdemeanor.” But that’s no longer true. Now we can say unequivocally that whatever you may think of the president’s speech, it’s not a basis for impeachment.
* * *
Robert G. Natelson is a leading originalist scholar who served as a law professor for 25 years. He is a senior fellow in constitutional jurisprudence at the Independence Institute in Denver. His research articles on the Constitution’s meaning have been cited repeatedly by justices and parties in the Supreme Court.
New York City taxi drivers - who were committing suicide left and right before the pandemic - are in bad shape.
After years competing with Uber and Lyft drivers for razor-thin margins, while maintaining an average debt of $450,000 on taxi medallions now worth $75,000 - $100,000, ridership is down 80-90% since March due to the pandemic, according to CNN.
"It's a ghost town," said Augustine Tang, a second-generation NY cab driver.
With ridership down 80 - 90% since March 2020, drivers count themselves lucky if they are able to snag three passengers a shift. The vast majority of Manhattan office workers haven't returned to the workplace, public school students have been in and out of classrooms, and tourism has slumped. On top of that, ride-sharing platforms such as Uber and Lyft have saturated the streets, capturing the lion's share of riders even before Covid-19 reached the city. -CNN
"I can’t hold on, not like this," said 27-year veteran cab driver Vinod Malhotra in November comments to the NYT. "I can make it maybe one more month, maybe two."
Drivers have also been reluctant to return to work, as fleet owners found themselves begging cabbies to take shifts - in some cases letting drivers rent out cabs for half the normal rate or less.
"My job isn’t safe. I don’t know who has had the Covid, and there are no customers anyway," said 53-year-old Burmese immigrant, Andrew Chen. "So I just stay home."
Medallion lenders, meanwhile, are have started to demand payments after suspending collections for several months during the worst of the pandemic. Recalling that the collapse in medallion prices began before the outbreak - in January, NYC launched a city task force which proposed a $500 million bailout for drivers' loans. This was followed by a February threat by NY State Attorney General Letitia A. James, to sue the city for $810 million to compensate drivers.
After the pandemic hit, efforts to help NYC cab drivers - over 90% of whom are immigrants, evaporated.
In 2013, yellow cabs made nearly half a million trips a day. In 2020, that number dropped to 50 - 60 thousand. But the yellow cab industry was already hemorrhaging trips pre-pandemic.
As unregulated vehicles for hire flooded the streets, investment-backed platforms such as Uber and Lyft undercut fares, able to absorb the loss. As riders flocked to these cheaper and more accessible taxis, yellow cabdrivers were left in the dust. -CNN
In response to the situation, the New York Taxi Workers Alliance (NYTWA) is asking New York City taxpayers to backstop their medallion loans to the tune of up to $125,000 over the course of 20 years with a $75 million proposal. Drivers would otherwise remain responsible for their loan payments, and the medallion could be repossessed and auctioned off.
Of course, even with vaccinations on the way and inevitably mandated 'vaccine passports,' NY cabbies are still going to be competing with the likes of Uber and Lyft drivers - who aren't drowning in medallion debt.
It was a close call, but Santa finally delivered with a strong rally this past week, pushing the markets to all-time highs. Interestingly, despite the “Blue Sweep” of the Georgia elections, the markets quickly turned from worrying that such would be harmful to the markets. Markets quickly dismissed concerns of higher taxes by justifying it with more stimulus and more significant deficits. In other words, “buy everything in sight.”
As I tweeted out on Tuesday:
Here is my prediction of how the market reacts tomorrow.
- Dem's win...market up.
- Rep's win...market up.
- Split win...market up
It really doesn't matter because they are all the same. Regardless of who wins inequality will wide, and economy will weaken. pic.twitter.com/tdR2Bu19Jq
While I do jest a bit, market participants quickly justify paying continually higher prices for investments.
Why not? Mainly when it’s a “Heads I win, Tails I win” market.
As I noted last week, it certainly seems as if there is no “risk” in investing. As markets continue to rise, investors are becoming increasingly confident. But therein lies the risk as confidence breeds complacency.
In the short-term, the bullish trends remain intact. After a month-long choppy process, the S&P 500 finally set a new all-time high. The good news is that short-term MACD signals and money flows are favorable, suggesting prices could rise higher in the short-term.
However, notice that while the MACD, and money flow, are positive, the market remains significantly overbought short-term. Such suggests that while markets could rise, it could be somewhat limited return relative to the risk.
On a longer-term basis, the markets remain grossly extended from long-term means. The only other times we have seen these extensions in recent years often resulted in the loss of short-term gains rather quickly.
A correction within the next 2-months would not be surprising given the deviations from long-term means. However, such does not preclude more upside first.
The Risk Of The Bullish View
As we noted last week:
“Currently, every single analyst has the same story going into 2021.
Prepare for an economic boom.
Interest rates will rise.
Inflation is coming back.
The stock market is going to 4100-4500
Small-caps are the new ‘new trade.'”
You get the idea. Everyone is incredibly “bullish” about the coming year with hopes of more stimulus, infrastructure spending, and a vaccine.
Somehow, despite millions of people still unemployed, the economy has just shifted into a “Golden Age” not seen since the 1950s.
However, therein lies the problem.
We Can’t Go Back
There have been two previous periods in history that have had the necessary ingredients to support a rising trend of interest rates, inflation, and economic growth over an extended period.
The first was during the previous century’s turn as the country became more accessible via railroads and automobiles. Production ramped up for World War I, and America began shifting from an agricultural to an industrial economy. (Read more on why this isn’t the “Roaring 20s.”
The second period was post-World War II. The war left America the “last man standing” after France, England, Russia, Germany, Poland, Japan, and others were devastated. It was here that America found its most substantial run of economic growth in its history as the “boys of war” returned home to start rebuilding the countries that they had just destroyed.
The U.S. is no longer the manufacturing powerhouse it once was, and globalization has sent jobs to the cheapest labor sources. Technological advances continue to reduce the need for human labor and suppress wages as productivity increases. Today, the number of workers between the ages of 16 and 54 participating in the labor force is near the lowest level relative to that age group since the late 70s.
There is also a structural and demographic problem that continues to drag on economic growth as nearly 1/4th of the American population is now dependent on some form of governmental assistance. These issues are only going to worsen due to long-term demographic trends, not only domestically but globally.
In other words, the ingredients required for sustained levels of more robust economic growth and prosperity are not available.
Trending In The Wrong Direction
As shown below, there is a correlation between the three major components of economic growth: inflation, interest rates, and wage growth.
Interest rates are not only a function of the investment market, but rather the level of “demand” for capital in the economy. When the economy is expanding organically, the demand for capital rises as a business increases production to meet rising demand. Increased production leads to higher wages, which in turn fosters more aggregate demand. As consumption increases, so does producers’ ability to charge higher prices (inflation) and for lenders to increase borrowing costs. (Currently, we do not have the type of inflation that leads to more robust economic growth, just inflation in the costs of living that saps consumer spending – Rent, Insurance, Health Care)
Note that “production” is the key to economic growth. Consumption that is dependent solely on increases in debt, or stimulus, has a negative impact on growth.
The chart above is a bit busy. If we combine the individual subcomponents into a composite index, the correlation with interest rates becomes clearer.
Blue Plans Won’t Lead To Growth.
Currently, investors hope that with a “Blue Wave,” more stimulus, increased deficits, and infrastructure spending is soon on their way. Goldman Sachs just upgraded their estimate of GDP growth based on the expectation of another $750 billion stimulus bill.
The surge in deficit spending, combined with the pick up in short-term demand for construction and manufacturing processes, will give the appearance of economic growth. Such will likely get both the Federal Reserve and the “bond bears” on the wrong side of the trade.
The impacts of these “one-off” inputs into the economy will fade rather quickly after implementation as organic productivity fails to increase. While many always hope these programs will lead to an ongoing economic expansion, a look at the last 40 years of fiscal and monetary policy suggests it won’t.
Why?
Because you can’t create economic growth when financed by deficit spending, credit, and a reduction in savings.
You can create the “illusion” of growth in the short-term, but the surge in debt reduces both productive investments and the output from the economy. As the economy slows, wages fall, forcing consumers to take on more leverage and decrease their savings rate. As a result, of the increased leverage, more of their income is needed to service the debt, which requires them to take on more debt.
While more stimulus and infrastructure spending may spur the economy and markets initially, the payback tends to be severe. Such is why we keep ending up at this point, demanding more spending to fix the last drawdown.
Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
Is The Reflation Trade Over?
The trade du jour has been to buy stocks that benefit the most from inflation. Energy and materials have been the hottest sectors over the last few weeks, and bitcoin is on fire. Conversely, utilities and REITs have suffered as higher interest rates tend to accompany inflationary expectations.
As such, the graph below is essential for stock investors to follow. Yes, we know it is TIP bonds, but it accurately quantifies the inflationary sentiment driving stocks.
The graph compares 2-year, and 10-year implied inflation levels. By comparing TIP yields to nominal Treasury yields, we extract the breakeven, or implied, inflation rate that makes investors indifferent between the two securities. As shown, short term expectations have risen from nearly -1% in April to 2.25% today. Short term expectations are at the highest level since 2013. 10-year inflation expectations are less volatile but have risen sharply.
The genius of the graph is the interaction of inflation expectations to the spread between the two. Short term inflation expectations tend to be lower than long term expectations. However, when they reach or exceed long-term expectations, they tend to peak and reverse sharply. The dotted lines highlight the seven times in the last 12 years this has occurred.
The bulls argue this time is different and inflation is a real threat, unlike the past. The bears rely on the past relationship and forecast a rapid decline in inflation expectations.
The eagles, ourselves included, have the luxury of watching the data and adjusting our stance as we see how the two rates react to the curve inversion.
The food industry is about to take a giant leap forward towards sustainability as a new partnership between Chicago-based food processing company Archer Daniels Midland and InnovaFeed, a French firm that makes insect protein for animal feed, are set to build the world's largest insect protein factory farm in central Illinois, according to Forbes.
ADM and InnovaFeed will grow and harvest billion and billions of insects called black soldier fly, whose larvae are scavengers and thrive on decomposing organic matter and convert it into a nutrient-rich protein that can be transformed into animal feed.
Black Soldier Fly Larvae
Once the facility is operational, both companies estimate yearly output could be around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed protein.
"I'm in awe. If they can pull this off, it will be magnificent," said Jeffrey Tomberlin, a professor and entomologist at Texas A&M University who has conducted years of research on insect protein
"This facility will be several times bigger than anything else in the world," Tomberlin said.
Black soldier fly larvae produce at least one hundred times more protein per acre than traditional animal feed sources such as corn, soybeans, sorghum, oats, and barley. This could be a monumental achievement for the agriculture industry as a bid for sustainably sourced food when pandemic-related shortages have developed, along with soaring prices.
Albert Edwards, an investment strategist at Societe Generale SA, recently published a report on soaring food prices.
Edwards, quoting the latest figures from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), showed food prices of oilseeds, dairy products, meat, and sugar are on the rise. Show below, the FAO food index hit a sixth-year high in November.
FAO Food Prices
"At a time when the World Bank notes that the Covid-19 pandemic will increase extreme poverty by around 150 million, we all need to be very vigilant of another food price bubble," Edwards warned.
He also links soaring food prices to the Federal Reserve's easing policies that caused a rapid jump in food prices in 2011, resulting in social unrest in multiple countries.
Food Price Rises And The Arab Spring
The pandemic has devastated the working poor as rising food prices come at an inopportune time that could incite social unrest.
Americans Go Hungry In Pandemic
Edwards makes the case that "another food price bubble" could be dead ahead.
The good news but not likely to offset a spike in food prices that is already underway is the future mass adoption of insects into the global food supply chain. Pound for pound, insects are the most efficient food source for animals and humans.
One of the most unsettling aspects of the last four years is the intentional effort to rewrite history in the media to fit a narrative either by denying facts or echoing clearly false statements.
The recent stories on the riot in Congress is a good example.
Most of us denounced Trump’s speech (as it was being given) and, of course, the rioting itself. Some, however, have noted that there have been violent protests for years, including the protest in Lafayette Square. The fact that there have been violent protests by the left does not take away from the disgraceful attack on Congress. Yet, there seems a controlling narrative that must be maintained at all costs portraying past protests by groups on the left as peaceful to magnify the criticism of the recent violence in Congress.
Even a site ironically called Media Matters published a piece not only calling the Lafayette protest peaceful but repeating a long discredited claim about the controversial Trump photo op.
The Lafayette Park protests occurred over multiple days and the clearing operation was ordered as a result of a decision made before the final day to establish a greater perimeter to protect the White House complex and immediate surrounding area much as the same fence perimeter was used last week on Capitol Hill. The operation was carried out, in my view, in an abusive way due to the level of force deployed and, as discussed below, the charging of the police line. They could have cleared the area without that level of force in my judgment, as I discussed in my testimony.
The Media Matters article by Bobby Lewis is illustrative an array of such media pieces. It was sent to my attention by a reader due to a reference to an interview that I did this week:
“Fox contributor Jonathan Turley compared the Capitol attack to “the Lafayette Park incident,” a June 2020 Black Lives Matter protest he falsely described as “an attack on the White House.” What actually happened was federal security forces tear-gassed protesters and media, without warning or serious provocation, in order to violently clear a path for a Trump photo-op in front of a church whose leaders did not want him there.”
Other sites have described the Lafayette Park protests as “peaceful.”
One site called Quartz said the protests were “entirely peaceful” and objected that there was no “attack on the White House.”
That is simply not true. Quartz was open in how it construed the protest as peaceful by referring to only the final day. While that claim is contested by law enforcement which showed objects being thrown at police, it simply ignores that the order to clear the area was due to the preceding violence of the prior two days.
As discussed in my testimony, there was an exceptionally high number of officers injured during the protests around the White House complex. Some 150 officers were injured during the protests and half of those were injured around the White House. The Justice Department claimed 750 injured officers during the various protests. What is clear that is dozens of officers were injured and there are videotapes of officers hit by frozen bottles, bricks and other missiles. For two days, the violence continued with the burning of a historic structure, extensive property damage and the attempted burning down of the historic St. John’s Church. The attacks around the complex were so great that the President was moved into the bunker and officers said that they were concerned that the complex might be breached.
It is also untrue that the area was cleared “in order to violently clear a path for a Trump photo-op.” A wide array of witnesses and documents detailed how the plan to clear the area was put into motion over 24 hours before the actual operation and long before any discussion of a photo op. The Park Police wanted to expand the perimeter to protect the White House and the plan was approved by then Attorney General Bill Barr. It was delayed because the officers were waiting for both fencing material and back-up personnel. When the personnel and fencing arrived, they proceeded with the operation. Barr repeatedly denied having knowledge of Trump’s desire for a photo op which arose long after the plan was approved.
At the hearing, I testified that I believed that there were unlawful actions taken in the operation. The final police charge appeared unjustified as was an attack on a media crew. I also criticized with the level of force used and suggested an array of inquiries for Congress to pursue in these areas of possible illegality.
However, the record and videotapes demonstrate that there was a high level of violence and destruction in Lafayette Park. Indeed, there are analogies to the situation at the Capitol. As with the Capitol, National Guard personnel were brought in after the violence had occurred. Indeed, in Lafayette Park, there was violence for two days before the deployment and the clearing of the area. In both situations, fencing was added to protect an expanded perimeter.
The point is not to defend either law enforcement operation. Indeed, I was highly critical of the clearing of Lafayette Park due to the excessive force used by the Park Police. However, it is simply not true that the Lafayette Park protests were peaceful as demonstrated by the high number of law enforcement injuries and extensive property damage. Even on the day of the clearing of the area, there was some violence. However, when the park was cleared, there was not the violence of the preceding days. That is why the level of force was excessive. The reports of a “peaceful” protest intentionally omits the violence leading up to the plan to expand the perimeter. The clearing of the park was not to address the immediate violence in the park. It was approved earlier to clear the park to protect the complex. Thus, there had been considerable violence and destruction but there was not such violence at the time of the clearing of the park. That is what happened in Lafayette Square.
I fail to see why such facts cannot be recognized and still criticize actions in both operations. Indeed, you can make the valid point that the effort to stop a constitutional act in Congress is a far greater threat to our system. Yet, there is no need to revise the facts to make those points. Indeed, they are more compelling when presented in a frank and honest way. We cannot reach a consensus as a nation if we are demanding answers based on diametrically opposed facts. There is clarity and a truth to be found in these incidents but it will take people of good faith to reach achieve that vital goal.
On Thursday, Tesla (+7.84) yesterday gained the market cap ($56bn) of nearly one GM or 1.6x Fords and in the process Elon Musk became the richest man in the world and has wealth ($194.8bn) which as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid writes, is virtually identical to the GDP of Greece in 2020 (population 10.7MM) even if one is a stock and one a flow.
As the second chart from Reid shows, the pandemic has been kind to the finances of this elite group largely by dint of the type of businesses they run, or are associated with, and the huge liquidity injections into markets.
After the initial shock of the pandemic, an index of US billionaire wealth (second chart) has increased consistently and is now back 29% above where we were in February 2019 with the top 5 62% above.
As Reid observes, these are "remarkable numbers given the period we’ve been through" and concludes that "whether this attracts the attention of the new US administration will be an interesting thing to watch and something that could impact markets at some point given how big and important the companies that these people own are."
The embattled Trump administration has just nuked the decades long US recognition of the "One China" policy status quo in what surely constitutes the biggest shot across Beijing's bow after months of anti-China escalation.
Despite the globe's attention focused on the Capitol protest chaos and Democrats readying a charge to impeach under Pelosi, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Saturday announced this absolute bombshell, namely that he's now lifting "self-imposed restrictions" on the relationship between the United States and Taiwan. He announced in an official statement:
Today I am announcing that I am lifting all of these self-imposed restrictions. Executive branch agencies should consider all "contact guidelines" regarding relations with Taiwan previously issued by the Department of State under authorities delegated to the Secretary of State to be null and void.
The US will no longer act in accord with viewing the island in context of a single sovereign China when it comes to relations with Taiwan as has kept the unsteady "peace" for decades.
His statement began by describing the complex impediments restraining US action which have been in effect since at least the 1980's (since 1979, and outgrowth of Carter's Taiwan Relations Act) regarding the official 'One China' doctrine which he's just effectively declared null and void:
Taiwan is a vibrant democracy and reliable partner of the United States, and yet for several decades the State Department has created complex internal restrictions to regulate our diplomats, servicemembers, and other officials’ interactions with their Taiwanese counterparts. The United States government took these actions unilaterally, in an attempt to appease the Communist regime in Beijing. No more.
Crucially the shock announcement comes just ahead of U.S. Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft's controversial visit to Taipei, which Beijing has already slammed as a "crazy provocation".
China had further already warned this week that Washington will pay a "heavy price" should it move forward with sending Kelly on the official visit.
To be sure, the Chinese govt will not be happy about this memo, but (from their perspective) at least @SecPompeo referred to Taiwan as an "unofficial partner."
Additionally, any and all sections of the Foreign Affairs Manual or Foreign Affairs Handbook that convey authorities or otherwise purport to regulate executive branch engagement with Taiwan via any entity other than the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) are also hereby voided. The executive branch‘s relations with Taiwan are to be handled by the non-profit AIT, as stipulated in the Taiwan Relations Act.
The United States government maintains relationships with unofficial partners around the world, and Taiwan is no exception. Our two democracies share common values of individual freedom, the rule of law, and a respect for human dignity. Today’s statement recognizes that the U.S.-Taiwan relationship need not, and should not, be shackled by self-imposed restrictions of our permanent bureaucracy.
This is sure to create more transition chaos with a mere week-and-a-half left till Biden's inauguration.
The timing of it will also be a huge factor in determining Beijing's response, given it may look to Biden for assurances that he'll roll back whatever "damage" Trump's dumping of the longstanding 'One China' has done on the way out the door.
A year ago, macro strategist David Hunter predicted a massive melt-up in financial assets, to be followed by an equally tremendous market crash.
Well, he’s certainly been right so far on the melt-up prediction.
All major stock indices are trading at record highs. And valuations have never been more stretched.
Market Cap to GDP (the famed “Buffet Indicator”) has never been higher.
Nor has the market’s price-to-sales ratio.
And it has never cost the 'average' American more hours worked to "buy" the stock market... (1220 hours to buy The Dow, against an average of 225 hours from 1964 to 1994)...
So, having correctly called the current melt-up, will Hunter’s prediction of a 65-80% crash in prices this year also come true?
Time will tell. But as extreme as that kind of drop may seem, history is on David’s side.
Whenever excessive debt has enabled market multiples to distort to unsustainably excessive heights - which is what’s happening now on an unprecedented level - a painful correction to clear out the bad debt and malinvestment has always occurred.
But despite his dire forecast, Hunter is more sanguine about what will follow. He predicts that those who preserve their capital through the coming crash will have the opportunity to deploy it at very advantageous terms as the next recovery begins. And like previous guests Jim Rogers and Steen Jakobsen, he sees a very bright future ahead for commodities and the companies that source, refine and deliver them to market.
Which is why now, more than ever, is the time to partner with a financial advisor who understands the nature of the risks and opportunities in play, can craft an appropriate portfolio strategy for you given your needs, and apply sound risk management protection where appropriate. Anyone interested in scheduling a free consultation and portfolio review with Mike Preston and John Llodra and their team at New Harbor Financial can do so by clicking here.
Within the OECD, Korea, Japan, Germany and Italy are among the countries most heavily affected by a decline of their working age populations.
Taking each country’s population between the ages of 20 and 64 in the year 2000 as a base, Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports that the OECD calculated that by 2050, that population would only be around 80 percent of its original size in Korea and Italy. In Japan, the country most heavily affected, that number would be just over 60 percent.
For the OECD in total, the size of the working age population is actually expected to increase and be at 111 percent of the 2000 figure in 2050. The growth is driven by countries with strong birth rates and large populations, like Australia, Turkey and the United States.
While Japan’s working age population has been in decline since the 1990s, Korea’s working age population was expected to start its decline in 2019. The country's statistics bureau just confirmed that the entire population of South Korea in fact declined by 0.04 percent in 2020.
For countries experiencing a decline of working age population, problems like underfunded social systems, tight labor markets and an overstretched medical and care sector are common.
It was just supposed to be a trading organization, a way to make commerce easier and in so doing build a sense of friendship and understanding on a war-ravaged Continent. In fact it was called “The Common Market.” But even after having joined (after years of being blocked from membership by President Charles de Gaulle of France), Britain had doubts.
For decades a parade of prime ministers implored the E.U. to halt its efforts for the closer integration of nations. Their entreaties fell on deaf ears. On came the E.U. flag, the E.U. anthem, rules and regulations on literally every facet of human life. Officials began talking about a “federation” of states, with a common foreign policy and army. And then came the common currency: the euro, a fraud of monumental proportions because it sought to replace national currencies that are based upon the economic realities of each nation with the illusion of fiscal strength based on “solidarity.” It is, in reality, deeply dishonest with a distinctly anti-American flavor. Ever suspicious of Continental combinations, the British looked on in anger. When they finally had their say, they wanted out.
Brexit sent shock waves throughout Europe because it was the beginning of the realization among Europeans that it didn’t have to be this way, life could be different and it was in their power to make it so.
In an interview following the referendum the very pro-E.U. French president was asked if he would hold a similar one for the French. “Non,” he replied. But why not? “Because we might lose.”
That is the essence of E.U. strategy: If you think the people might vote against our policies, don’t hold the vote. So much for E.U. democracy.
After Brexit, France invited British banks and financial service companies to relocate to Paris, “rolling out the red carpet.” Pundits predicted impending financial doom. It never happened. Company CEOs looked at France’s constant social turmoil, including the “Yellow Vest” movement, and decided that staid, boring London was preferable to having your branch offices firebombed by malcontent farmers, Breton fishermen, and anarchists-for-hire. For years E.U. negotiators stonewalled the British at every turn, even threatening the link of Northern Ireland to the rest of the United Kingdom. An agreement was reached and quickly rejected by Parliament. The government fell and a general election was called. Again, withdrawal from the European Union was the peoples’ choice. Talks resumed and, as before, whatever the E.U. placed on the table was termed the final offer. This the British wisely recognized as a bluff.
So why, after all these years, was an agreement possible? Because everyone at the table wanted to make money, or rather, wanted to continue to make money. Despite all the posturing, the threats, the insinuations of blackmail, the kisses on hands and cheeks by pear-shaped Eurocrats prior to lunch and dinner meetings that led nowhere, everyone understood that, in the end, if there was no deal, no one could make money. And that is the secret to the deal. When the trucks leaving Dover for Calais were backed up for miles due to a new COVID-19 scare just before Christmas, it was a portent of what could occur on a daily basis without an agreement, and someone at E.U. headquarters in Brussels had the presence of mind to declare, “Sweet mother of God, we can’t let this happen.” Therefore, a deal was certain. “Voilà!”
So, the deal was signed, predictably, at the last minute. The E.U. lead negotiator Michel Barnier stated that whatever the outcome, “the British cannot have their cake and eat it.” Well, they came pretty damned close. Free trade with the E.U. was confirmed with minimal border checks (this was deemed impossible in the early days of the talks), the end of jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, the termination of the E.U. customs union, the end of unlimited immigration, and an open Irish border (also deemed impossible). Britain will not contribute to a European army, will follow its own foreign policy, and can now negotiate trade agreements with other nations worldwide.
So far, all has gone smoothly.
To the consternation of the BBC, CNN, and The New York Times, long lines of trucks did not appear in Calais with fistfights erupting between drivers and border control agents. The paperwork was correctly filled out, the New Year’s holiday helped, everyone was calm. But these “news” sources would like nothing better than to see the British people starve in order to illustrate the folly of Brexit to the uneducated, unsophisticated masses that voted for it twice. And the left’s lament over travel restrictions to Europe is patently false. No one will physically restrain you to remain in Britain if you wish to travel. Secure a passport and visa, have lunch in Lisbon.
This whole saga is about what democracy is and what it isn’t. Democracy may not bring the results you wish, but it must be respected. It cannot be misrepresented, or slanted, or as some would wish ignored. Forestalled, yes, but only for a while.
People ultimately know, or rather feel, what they desire, and despite the time that it takes for a mature democracy to fulfill that desire, it shall surely come to pass. Not self-important commissioners, nor self-appointed bureaucrats, nor organizations posing as sovereign powers can deny them; the people’s will, ultimately, cannot be cast aside.
The coins of an ersatz currency that they have been forced to carry in their pockets they will carry no more. Of course Poland, Hungary, Greece, and Italy are watching these developments very closely. They are trying to figure their way out because Brexit has a larger message for the nations of Europe than just the withdrawal of a great power from an ill-conceived political construct, and it is this: With consistent effort and steely determination, you too can be free again.
“Know Thyself, Nothing to Excess, Surety Brings Ruin”
– inscribed at the Temple of Apollo at Delphi
Many are aware of the Apollo at Delphi inscription and associate it as words of wisdom, after all, the Temple at Delphi was at the center of global intelligence. Kings, emperors, statesmen, generals from all quarters of the ancient world would travel to the Temple with a very generous payment in gold in hopes that the wisdom of the great god Apollo would be bestowed on them and give strength and power to their particular cause.
One of the most famous prophecies made by the Cult of Delphi, according to the ancient historian Herodotus, was to King Croesus of Lydia. King Croesus was a very rich king and the last bastion of the Ionian cities against the increasing Persian power in Anatolia. King Croesus wished to know whether he should continue his military campaign deeper into Persian Empire territory and whether he should seek a military alliance in such a feat.
According to Herodotus, the amount of gold King Croesus delivered was the greatest ever bestowed upon the Temple of Apollo. In return the priestess of Delphi, otherwise known as the Oracle, (some poor young girl selected once a year with the “right attributes”) would spout nonsensical babble, intoxicated by the gas vapours of the chasm she was conveniently placed over. The priests would then “translate” the Oracle’s prophecy.
King Croesus was told as his prophecy-riddle, “If Croesus goes to war he will destroy a great empire.” Croesus was also told to ally himself with the most powerful Greek state, and he chose Sparta. Croesus was overjoyed and thought his victory solid and immediately began working towards building his military campaign against Persia. Long story short, Croesus lost everything and Lydia was taken over by the Persians. The Spartans never showed up.
It turns out the prophecy-riddle was not wrong, but that Croesus mistook which great empire would fall.
There is likely a great deal of truth in this story. And the words inscribed at the Temple of Apollo “Know Thyself, Nothing to Excess, Surety Brings Ruin” becomes more a foreboding to anyone who dares enter such a Temple in search of wisdom and power; those who are “worthy” of the god Apollo will have the wisdom to solve the riddle of their prophecy and will prevail, those unworthy of Apollo’s “good graces” will fail and be ruined.
It’s a nice story, but it is in fact, a brilliant cover for a global intelligence racket.
The Cult of Delphi was indeed the nerve center of military and political intelligence that had no “allegiance” to any state or empire, but rather was able to use intel that they collected with their network of spies, along with intel they were given by those foolish enough to layout their plans (and their gold) to them. The priests of Delphi would then decide thereupon what information needed to be shared with what target to fit their purpose, a “prophecy” that they shaped, like moving pawns on a chessboard.
The question for those who dared visit the Cult of Delphi was thus not so much about having enough wisdom to solve the veiled prophecy, but rather, ‘What kind of pawn are you to the priests of Apollo?’
The Morals and Dogma of the Scottish Rite
Those who seek wisdom and power have tended to also have an interest in the realm of “secret knowledge.” After all, who wouldn’t want a fast track toward their desires? Who wouldn’t want to believe that their destiny is to be rich, privileged and powerful? Who wouldn’t want to believe that they were chosen out of a few to hold special qualities (one could say supernatural)that make them superior to the majority?
The Scottish Rite was formally organized in the U.S. in 1801, as a group of Tory partisans on the losing side of the American Revolution. One of the principal men involved from the very beginning was a British general by the name of Augustine Prevost. Prevost had conquered Charleston, South Carolina, and set up a secret police apparatus there which became the Scottish Rite headquarters, after the British Army left. (1)
The Scottish Rite would come to rule over American Freemasonry during the nineteenth century and Albert Pike is recognised as the source of this success.
In 1859, Pike was elected “Sovereign Grand Commander” of the Scottish Rite’s Southern Jurisdiction. In 1871, “Morals and Dogma of the Ancient and Accepted Scottish Rite of Freemasonry” (the anti-bible of the Rite) was first published by its author Albert Pike, former General of the Confederate Armies during the Civil War.
Why am I bringing this all up when the focus of this paper is on the origins of America’s secret police?
Because the man credited for building the FBI into the massive domestic intelligence apparatus that it is today was J. Edgar Hoover, who happened to be a 33rd degree mason of the Scottish Rite, which he was “coroneted” in 1955 after 35 years of membership.
Why is this relevant for the purpose of this paper? If one is to understand what constitutes the “Morals and Dogma” of such a membership, to which Hoover entered the inner most circle, it will become clear that not only does the Rite act as an opposing church to Christianity, but that pledging one’s allegiance to this secret society is understood as coming before all else in this material world, including government and country.
For this reason I think it apt to share a few quotes…
Writing about top-down organization, Pike wrote the following in his book Morals and Dogma:
“The Blue [or lower] Degrees are but the outer court … of the Temple. Part of the symbols are displayed there to the Initiate, but he is intentionally misled by false interpretations. It is not intended that he shall understand them, but it is intended that he shall imagine he understands them. Their true explication is reserved for the Adepts, the Princes of Masonry. . . .” [emphasis added]
These are the very same techniques used by the Cult of Delphi with the understanding that the “true explication” of the “symbols” will only be understood by those supposedly worthy of them, i.e. “the Adepts, the Princes of Masonry.”
How does one know if one is a Prince of Masonry? Those who are foolish enough to have complete faith in the magic of the occult will give an honest attempt to understand such symbols, however, the truth of the matter is those who are chosen for their “understanding” and thus moved closer to the inner “sanctum”, are merely chosen for their usefulness as an instrument for “a higher will.” While this person might be a pawn who plays the determining role in a checkmate, they remain, nevertheless, just a pawn.
Pike would also write in his Morals and Dogma:
“Men are but the automata of Providence, and [Providenae] uses the demagogue, the fanatic, and the knave . .. as its tools and instruments to effect that of which they do not dream, and which they imagine themselves commissioned to prevent …”
Here it becomes clear that the majority of mankind are considered by the Rite as instruments of Providence, and that to do the will of such Providence justifies that the Rite treat mankind as such. I will address shortly what sort of providence they are speaking of.
Pike goes on to explain the Rite’s main guide to the universe, as:
‘‘Magic is the science of the ancient magi.. Magic unites in one and the same science, whatsoever Philosophy can possess that is most certain, and Religion of the Infallible and the Eternal. It perfectly … reconciles these two terms… faith and reason … those who accept [magic] as a rule may give their will a sovereign power that will make them the masters of all inferior beings and of all errant spirits; that is to say, will make them the Arbiters and Kings of the World….”
Again, we see the concept that only a select few will be chosen to be able to decipher and use magic, and that thereby justifies their dominion “that will make them masters of all inferior beings…[and] make them the Arbiters and Kings of the World.”
Pike wrote the above quote to instruct “Sublime Princes of the Royal Secret”- gentlemen of the 32nd Degree.
At this point, it is clear that to truly hold this view of oneself, humankind and the “laws of the universe” means that one is in direct conflict with the idea of democracy towards a “government of the people, by the people, for the people.”
Lastly, I will share a quote from 1889 while Pike was in France, expressing his views of God and what is to be considered “the Good”:
“The Masonic religion should be, by all of us initiates of the high degrees, maintained in the purity of the Luciferian Doctrine. If Lucifer were not God, would Adonay (the God of the Christians) whose deeds prove his cruelty, perfidy and hatred of man, barbarism and repulsion to science, would Adonay and his priests calumniate him?
`Yes, Lucifer is God, and unfortunately Adonay is also God. For the eternal law is that there is no light without shade, no beauty without ugliness, no white without black, for the absolute can only exist as two Gods…the true and pure philosophical religion is the belief in Lucifer, the equal of Adonay; but Lucifer, God of Light and God of Good, is struggling for humanity against Adonay, the God of Darkness and Evil.”
This quote, as per historian Anton Chaitkin, is available in French and English in the Albert Pike vertical file at the library of the Scottish Rite Southern Jurisdiction at 1733 16th St. NW, Washington D.C.
In later years, the body of Albert Pike would be interred inside the Washington DC Temple’s walls. A few feet away, they built a complete replication of the office and desk of their second most honored member, FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover.
It should also be known that much of the FBI is implicated in the Scottish Rite. For instance, there are certain Washington lodges which have a disproportionately high number of FBI agents in them such as the Alexandria Lodge.
[For more information on this refer to historian Anton Chaitkin’s “Treason in America”.]
The Seat of Government
On Dec. 17, 1906, Teddy Roosevelt promoted his Navy Secretary, Charles J. Bonaparte, to become Attorney General. Bonaparte lost no time and told Congress that the Department of Justice must be given “a force of permanent police… under its control.”
On May 27, 1908, Congress reacted by prohibiting all Executive departments from using Secret Service agents as policemen, including the Justice Department. During this period only the Treasury Department had the authority to use Secret Service men.
To get around this block from Congress, on July 26, 1908, Attorney General Bonaparte, on Teddy Roosevelt’s instructions, ordered the creation of an investigative agency within the Department of Justice; which later became known as the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
It was the start of what would become an unelected oligarchy, in direct opposition to the rule of self-government.
In the midst of this, a 22-year-old J. Edgar Hoover was first recruited, the year was 1917. Just out of law school, he was put in charge of the Department of Justice’s War Emergency Division’s Enemy Alien Bureau, and was quickly immersed in the wildly lawless wartime counterinsurgency of the First Red Scare (1917-1920).
“Attorney General Palmer created a General Intelligence (or “Radical”) Division in the Bureau of Investigation, and appointed Hoover its head. Military Intelligence and Hoover’s agents working together as a single secret service now built up a network of civilian vigilante spies, informers and provocateurs.
...
These auxiliaries were then set loose in the “Palmer Raids,” a war on unions, radicals, civil rights advocates, teachers, and immigrants from November 1919 to January 1920. This initial descent into a police state was, however, deeply opposed by the American population, and sparked popular protests and outrage.”
Edgar Hoover was well fitted as Palmer’s deputy, in overseeing the political mass arrests, deportations, lynchings, terror propaganda, and witch-hunts. Hoover would put a Southern White Masonic unit inside the Bureau itself, called the Fidelity Chapter. And insist that his agents refer to the Bureau, and his office, as “The Seat of Government”. (2)
In 1922, Walter Lippmann put forth in his incredibly influential book “Public Opinion,” that a dictatorship was of the utmost necessity to correct the crisis America was now facing, and that it could no longer afford to delude itself with the idea of a Constitutional system. Lippmann argued that the general public was incapable of exercising reasoned judgment. He claimed the people could only think in “stereotypes” such that they are led to believe in “villains and conspiracies.”
Thus, to overcome such “ignorance,” Lippmann declared that the consensus must be generated not by the ill-educated people, but rather “engineered” by an elite class of “experts”, using “propaganda.” This elite class was in turn to guide the national government from within its every department, forming a permanent dictatorship, its governing members appointed, not elected, to serve for life. A “soft” dictatorship so to speak.
When the Great Depression hit (1929-1933), Hoover blamed the general lawlessness on inefficient, corrupt local politicians and police. What was the solution? More power to “the Bureau.”
Presidents Come and Go But One Thing Remains Constant
While campaigning for the Presidency, Franklin Roosevelt installed his close friend Thomas J. Walsh as the 1932 Democratic convention chairman.
Montana Senator Walsh “knew where the bodies were buried” so to speak.
The reason for this was that in 1921, Thomas J. Walsh had led the battle at the Senate hearings on the Justice Department’s illegal practices. During the hearings he confronted Palmer and his deputy Hoover with evidence that they had perpetrated “an orgy of terror, violence and crime against citizens and aliens….”
Walsh remained in the Senate as J. Edgar Hoover’s dedicated enemy.
Franklin Roosevelt won the election on November 8, 1932; he was to take office in March. On February 15, 1933, a low-level Italian Freemason named Giuseppe Zingara shot at President-elect Roosevelt. He missed and ended up killing the Chicago Mayor Anton Cermak instead.
On February 26, Franklin Roosevelt announced his appointment of Senator Thomas J. Walsh as U.S. Attorney General. On March 1, the New York Times reported Walsh’s pledge that “he would re-organize the Department of Justice when he assumes office, probably with an almost completely new personnel.”
It is said that Walsh had declared that one of his first acts would be to oust J. Edgar Hoover.
Walsh was found dead the next morning, while on a train to Washington, D.C. for Roosevelt’s March 4 inauguration and his own swearing-in.
Starting in July 1933, a group of American Legion officials paid by J.P. Morgan’s men asked Marine Corps General Smedley Butler to lead a coup d’état against President Roosevelt. When General Butler had gathered enough evidence he went to J. Edgar Hoover for action. Hoover refused to take any action stating that there was no evidence a federal criminal statute had been violated. General Butler had no choice but to broadcast the coup plot to the American people in order to subvert the fascist takeover.
Franklin Roosevelt was entirely aware that the growing power of the federal bureau was a terrible threat, and had rapidly become an abhorrent opposing force to the president’s authority. It is for that reason that Franklin Roosevelt made the decision to centralise U.S. intelligence under his own control, which was to be created and guided by Colonel Donovan under the newly created OSS.
It was no secret that Colonel Donovan and J. Edgar Hoover were entirely opposed to each other. In fact, Donovan was up there with Martin Luther King, Eleanor Roosevelt, and Robert Kennedy on Hoover’s most despised list.
Franklin Roosevelt died on April 12th, 1945. WWII was officially over on Sept 2nd, 1945. The OSS would be dissolved three weeks later on Sept 20th, 1945. The CIA was “officially” created two years later, purged of its FDR patriots. Donovan vied for leadership of the CIA and was denied. Instead Truman assigned him the task of heading a committee studying the country’s fire departments. (For more on this refer to my paper)
Following this the FBI continued to conduct witch hunts through Congressional committees, President Truman, Senator Joseph R. McCarthy, and the young California Congressman Richard M. Nixon.
On November 22nd, 1963 President Kennedy was brutally murdered in the streets of Dallas, Texas in broad daylight.
On November 29th, 1963 the Warren Commission was set up to investigate the murder of President Kennedy.
The old Congressman Hale Boggs of Louisiana (an ally of FDR) was a member of that Warren Commission. Boggs became increasingly disturbed by the lack of transparency and rigour exhibited by the Commission and became convinced that many of the documents used to incriminate Oswald were in fact forgeries.
In 1965 Rep. Boggs told New Orleans District Attorney Jim Garrison that Oswald could not have been the one who killed Kennedy. (4) It was Boggs who encouraged Garrison to begin the only law enforcement prosecution of the President’s murder to this day.
Nixon was inaugurated as President of the United States on Jan 20th, 1969. Hale Boggs soon after called on Nixon’s Attorney General John Mitchell to have the courage to fire J. Edgar Hoover. (5)
It wasn’t long thereafter that the private airplane carrying Hale Boggs disappeared without a trace.
Jim Garrison was the District Attorney of New Orleans from 1962 to 1973 and was the only one to bring forth a trial concerning the assassination of President Kennedy. In Jim Garrison’s book “On the Trail of the Assassins”, J. Edgar Hoover comes up several times impeding or shutting down investigations into JFK’s murder, in particular concerning the evidence collected by the Dallas Police Department, such as the nitrate test Oswald was given and which exonerated him, proving that he never shot a rifle the day of Nov 22nd, 1963. However, for reasons only known to the government and its investigators this fact was kept secret for 10 months. (6) It was finally revealed in the Warren Commission report, which inexplicably didn’t change their opinion that Oswald had shot Kennedy.
Another particularly damning incident was concerning the Zapruder film that was in the possession of the FBI and which they had sent a “copy” to the Warren Commission for their investigation. This film was one of the leading piece of evidence used to support the “magic bullet theory” and showcase the direction of the headshot coming from behind, thus verifying that Oswald’s location was adequate for such a shot.
During Garrison’s trial on the Kennedy assassination (1967-1969) he subpoenaed the Zapruder film that for some peculiar reason had been locked up in some vault owned by Life magazine. This was the first time in more than five years that the Zapruder film was made public. It turns out the FBI’s copy that was sent to the Warren Commission had two critical frames reversed to create a false impression that the rifle shot was from behind.
When Garrison got a hold of the original film it was discovered that the head shot had actually come from the front. In fact, what the whole film showed was that the President had been shot from multiple angles meaning there was more than one gunman. (7)
When the FBI was questioned about how these two critical frames could have been reversed, they answered self-satisfactorily that it must have been a technical glitch…
Today there are those who continue an attempt to discredit the work of Jim Garrison for the crime of challenging the absurd narrative of the Warren Commission. However, anyone who bothers to read the Warren Commission report, would soon discover it to be a mess of contradictions, fallacies and outright fabrications. Not only an absurd sham but ultimately complicit in one of the most disgraceful cover-ups in American history.
When will the American people realise that the biggest threat to American freedom is not from without but from within its very own walls, where it has been prominently residing for the last 112 years…
[In a following article I will be addressing the central role of H.G. Wells and Walter Lippmann in British-American Intelligence which will subsequently be followed by an expose on the role of CIA Godfather Allen Dulles and the real reason Americans were manipulated into entering the Vietnam War.]
The Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index rose for a seventh consecutive month in December, led by dairy products and vegetable oils.
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 107.5 points last month versus 105.2 points in November.
The benchmark, which tracks global food prices of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat, and sugar, averaged 97.9 points for 2020, a three-year high, and a 3.1% rise from 2019 levels.
The global food index was still down 25% from its historical high reached in 2011.
Vegetable oil prices saw the most significant jump, up 4.7% month-on-month in December after surging more than 14.0% in November. The index was up 19.1% in 2020 over the prior year.
FAO explained that soaring vegetable oil prices are due to "ongoing supply tightness in major palm oil-producing countries. International trade was affected by a sharp hike in export duties in Indonesia. International prices for soy oil rose in part due to prolonged strikes in Argentina that impacted both crushing activity and port logistics."
Cereal prices rose 1.1% from November and for all of 2020 averaged 6.6% over the prior year. The reason for the increase is that export prices for wheat, maize, sorghum, and rice all rose last month due to growing condition concerns in North and South America and the Russian Federation.
Earlier this week, we highlighted drought conditions materialized in Argentina resulted in corn (maize) prices trading in Chicago surging to 6-1/2 year highs.
Rome-based FAO said the dairy index increased 3.2% on the month, but for the year, it was flat compared to 2019.
The meat index increased 1.7% last month, while its average this year was 4.5% below that of 2019.
Everyone's favorite permabear, SocGen's Albert Edwards, who, unlike Goldman Sachs, is starting to worry about soaring food inflation, writes FAO Food Price Index been surging over the last few months.
With the FAO food index continually rising, Edwards notes that "annual inflation in cereals reached 20%, the highest annual rise since mid-2011 when the Arab Spring was in full flow! (see chart below)."
Edwards makes his feelings clear on who ultimately was to blame for the global tidal wave in food inflation back in 2011: "Despite Ben Bernanke's denials that the Fed's QE policies caused rampant food price inflation in 2011 (link), many economists such as myself believe that was absolutely the case."
Edwards summarizes his concerns best with the following statement: "even in the richest country in the world, food poverty has become a real problem during this pandemic."
Synchronicity is definitely fond of mirror wonderwalls. The Julian Assange saga seemed to have entered a new chapter as he was, in thesis, on his way to – conditional – freedom this past Monday, only one day after the first anniversary of the start of the Raging Twenties: the assassination of Maj Gen Qassem Soleimani.
The fate of the journalist the Empire seeks to terminate was just juxtaposed to the fate of the warrior/diplomat the empire already terminated.
Two days later, Julian Assange was de facto re-incarcerated exactly as the Empire was hit by an “insurrection” which, whenever instigated in that distant “Third World”, is celebrated in Exceptionalistan as “people power”.
The invaluable Craig Murray, from inside Westminster Magistrates Court No. 1 in London, meticulously presented the full contours of the insanity this Wednesday.
Read it in conjunction with the positively terrifying judgment delivered on Monday in the United States government case against Julian Assange.
The defining issue, for all those who practice real journalism all across the world, is that the judgment affirms, conclusively, that any journalist can be prosecuted under the US Espionage Act. Since a 1961 amendment, the Espionage Act carries universal jurisdiction.
The great John Pilger memorably describes “judge” Vanessa Baraitser as “that Gothic woman”. She is in fact an obscure public servant, not a jurist. Her judgment walks and talks like it was written by a mediocre rookie hack. Or, better yet, entirely lifted from the US Department of Justice indictment.
Julian Assange was – at the last minute – discharged on theoretically humanitarian grounds. So the case had, in effect, ended. Not really. Two days later, he was sent back to Belmarsh, a squalid maximum security prison rife with Covid-19. So the case is ongoing.
WikiLeaks editor Kristinn Hrafnnson correctly noted, “It is unjust and unfair and illogical when you consider her ruling of two days ago about Julian’s health in large part because he is in Belmarsh prison (…) To send him back there doesn’t make any sense.”
It does when one considers the real role of Baraitser – at a loss to juggle between the imperatives of the imperial agenda and the necessity of saving the face of British justice.
Baraitser is a mere, lowly foot soldier punching way above her weight. The real power in the Assange case is Lady Emma Arbuthnot, forced out of a visible role because of very compromising, direct ties she and her husband Lord Arbuthnot maintain with British intelligence and military, first revealed by – who else – WikiLeaks.
It was Arbuthnot who picked up obscure Baraitser – who dutifully follows her road map. In court, as Murray has detailed in a series of searing reports, Baraitser essentially covers her incompetence with glaring vindictiveness.
Baraitser discharged Julian Assange, according to her own reasoning, because she was not convinced the appalling American gulag would prevent him from committing suicide.
But the key issue is that before reaching this conclusion, she agreed and reinforced virtually every point of the US indictment.
So at this point, on Monday, the “Gothic woman” was performing a contortion to save the US from the profound global embarrassment of prosecuting a de facto journalist and publisher for revealing imperial war crimes, not United States government secrets.
Two days later, the full picture became crystal clear. There was nothing “humanitarian” about that judgment. Political dissent was equaled with mental illness. Julian Assange was branded as criminally insane. Once again, practicing journalism was criminalized.
There are reasons to believe though, that a United States government appeal may fail. A British High Court would be reluctant to overturn a judgment where Baraitser actually established findings of fact: a direct correlation between the state of the American gulag, and the extreme danger to Assange’s health if he’s thrown inside this system.
As it stands, it didn’t even matter that Assange’s defense offered a full package to obtain bail, from home arrest to the use of an ankle bracelet. Baraitser’s notion that the British security state would not be able to prevent his “escape” wearing an ankle bracelet in the middle of a total, police state-style lockdown does not even qualify as a joke.
So Julian Assange is back to suffering a perverse, interminable rewrite of Poe’s The Pit and the Pendulum.
The US government’s legal strategy before the High Court convenes in April is basically to try to prove its American gulag is competent enough to prevent a suicide – even though the ultimate aim of this post-truth Inquisition seems to be the termination of Julian Assange inside the penal system. That goal doesn’t even require a supermax prison in Colorado. Belmarsh will do.
The U.S. Capitol building was stormed by an angry pro-Trump mob on Jan. 6. Overall, five people died as a result of the riot – one woman shot as she tried to break into a room of lawmakers, three people who died of medical emergencies in the crowd and one Capitol Police Officer who later died due to head injuries sustained from an attack by a rioter.
The attack occurred during the early moments of Congress counting all electoral votes in a largely ceremonious declaration of President-elect Biden as the incoming successor to Trump. Continued claims of election fraud from Trump over the last two months, parroted by a minority of Republicans in the House and Senate, led to a few lawmakers objecting to certain swing states’ electoral votes.
At times during the attack, Capitol Police either nonchalantly allowed rioters to get closer to the Capitol or outright encouraged the mob to gather right at its doors and windows. Several videos show sections of police using little or no force in stopping the mob, with some standing to take selfies. Three of the four Capitol Police Board members have since resigned.
According to a recent YouGov survey, while a majority of Americans oppose the violent attack on the U.S. Capitol, 45 percent of Republicans say they’re in support of the riot and believe it’s justified. That’s roughly 33 million voters across the country...
As YouGov notes, the partisan difference in support could be down to differing perceptions of the nature of the protests.
While 59% of voters who are aware of the events at the Capitol perceive them as being more violent than more peaceful (28%), the opposite is true of Republicans. By 58% to 22%, Republicans see the goings on as more peaceful than more violent.
Democrats are swiftly moving to draft articles of impeachment against Trump before his term ends in less than two weeks. The party is also hoping to implement the 25th amendment, which would have two-thirds of Congress vote to remove Trump from office and install Vice President Pence for the remainder of the term. Both appear unlikely to gain enough Republican support, but huge cracks within the GOP are emerging following the Capitol attack as anger builds across both parties.
Those on both sides of the dispute are at odds in their descriptions of those currently occupying the US Capitol.
About half (52%) of voters agree with the “extremist” label, the most commonly selected of all the terms we put to respondents (but the split between Republicans and Democrats is vast). Nearly as many (49%) think “domestic terrorists” is an appropriate title, and 41% consider them “criminals.”
Beijing is looking forward to a new U.S. administration after Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden represented a “new window of hope” for the Sino–U.S. relationship.
Wang made the remarks last week in an interview with Chinese state-run media Xinhua and China Media Group. He also expressed hopes that the incoming U.S. administration will “return to a sensible approach,” according to a government transcript.
He took a swipe at the Trump administration, saying that in recent years, the United States has tried to “suppress China and start a new cold war.” The Chinese regime has frequently used this rhetoric, especially during the 2018–2019 trade war, to criticize the administration’s China policies.
He also accused U.S. policymakers of having “serious misconceptions” about China and called on the United States to “respect” China’s social system.
Wang concluded his interview by saying that the two countries could resolve their differences “as long as the United States can draw lessons from the past and work with China in the same direction.”
The Trump administration has confronted the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on a range of issues, including unfair trade practices, espionage, malign influence in the United States, security threats posed by Chinese technology, and its human rights abuses against religious minorities and Hong Kong residents.
Biden’s critics have expressed concerns that an administration under him would be soft on China, and Chinese state-run media have openly stated their preference for Biden.
Most recently, China’s state-run media Global Times, in an article published on Jan. 5, used the sudden decision by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) not to delist three Chinese telecom companies as a sign that a more “flexible” administration under Biden would be more friendly toward Beijing. The NYSE has since reversed course again, saying on Jan. 6 that it would go ahead with delisting them.
“Chinese experts translated the move as a voice of reason from some in Wall Street and US political circle [sic], who wish the incumbent US president won’t hamstring the incoming Biden administration in making decisions related to China,” the article stated.
It also cited a Chinese professor who said U.S. politicians and businessmen would prefer “flexibility” under Biden over Trump’s “boundless style of bullying.”
On Dec. 31, 2020, the NYSE announced that it would begin the process of delisting China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, in compliance with Trump’s executive order, as the three companies were found by the Pentagon to have ties to the Chinese military.
In a commentary article published in the Chinese-language Epoch Times last month, Zhong Yuan, a researcher focused on China’s political system, explained that the CCP preferred a Biden presidency because he would implement a policy of engagement with Beijing.
The CCP’s favorable stance toward Biden was reflected in an opinion article published by Xinhua on Dec. 19, 2020, according to Zhong. The article stated that the Trump administration had left behind “a mess” and considered what his successor should do.
Zhong said there was an urgency for the CCP to start working with Biden because there’s internal division within the Party about how to handle deteriorating Sino–U.S. ties. Zhong said the division was evident in another Xinhua opinion article published in December 2020, that denounced “certain people” for spreading “favorable comments” about the United States.
The division threatened the position of Chinese leader Xi Jinping within the Party, Zhong said, and was likely the reason Chinese state-run media took up the position of supporting Biden.
Connecticut Gov Ned Lamont is showing Gov Andrew Cuomo the error of his attention-seeking ways. While Lamont has been more than comfortable playing a supporting role in the alliance of northeastern governors led by Cuomo, Bloomberg pointed out in a recent piece that tiny Connecticut had surpassed the neighboring Empire State by taking a different, significantly looser approach to vaccinating its most vulnerable residents.
As we reported yesterday, after enduring a torrent of criticism, Cuomo has finally reversed his strategy for vaccinating New Yorkers in a truly "equitable" manner, after discovering that his tight restrictions and hefty penalties was forcing hospitals to slow the pace of vaccinations to a crawl.
After finally relenting, Cuomo said the other day that New York would start scheduling vaccination appointments for seniors, teachers and first responders, as well as New Yorkers 75+.
Bloomberg's vaccination tracker shows New York has administered just 38% of the shots it has received from the US government as of Jan. 7. Connecticut has worked through 46% of its supply.
Connecticut has given 3.26 doses per 100 people in the state, while NY has given 2.46 doses per 100 people.
High-risk hospital workers (emergency room and intensive-care staff) were first in line in the Empire State, while other health-care personnel such as independent doctors were set to be vaccinated later, though Cuomo opened vaccination to them Monday.
Cuomo on Friday said the guidelines were designed to protect the people treating coronavirus patients, but they ultimately caused frustration among some health-care workers. Jana Dehovitz, a pediatrician in Brooklyn, unsuccessfully tried to get vaccinated for weeks. She said she was frustrated hearing stories of politicians and specialists at large health systems who don’t see patients receiving their shots.
"Are they going to come see our patients for us since they’ll be protected?" Dehovitz said. She got the first of a two-course shot Thursday.
Of course, the US rollout has fallen short of projections set months ago by Operation Warp Speed. While the initial round of shots through early January has been doled out primarily via hospitals, the next phase will draw more on pharmacies and health clinics (ie places where vaccines are more traditionally administered) and will broaden the pool of people eligible to get the shots).
As the chart above shows, Israel is leading not only the US, but most of Europe and the Middle East as well. Still, we look forward to watching CNN, MSNBC and the rest of the medi
The hypocrisy of left-wing Big Tech companies is astounding.
A day after Twitter banned President Trump “due to the risk of further incitement of violence,” the social media company let “Hang Mike Pence” trend on its platform.
WTF why is this allowed to trend?
I get that people have been tweeting it to quote some of the insurrectionists but it shouldn't be allowed to trend. pic.twitter.com/HTlSYnoB5y
While the phrase “Hang Mike Pence” apparently began trending because of a viral video from the Capitol riot showing protesters chanting the phrase, many believed Twitter letting the phrase trend at all was hypocritical following the company justifying banning Trump over bogus allegations that he incited violence.
The past few months can best be characterized as a period of unprecedented market optimism and sheer euphoria, and we have done just that with several recent articles...
... and so on. But whereas in the recent past, the euphoria was always bounded by the upper limit reached during the insatiable buying spree of the dot com bubble, the first week of the year is when we went off the chart. Literally.
As the latest Citi Panic/Euphoria model shows, this week’s Panic/Euphoria jumped to a record 1.83 versus an upwardly revised 1.69 in the prior week.
What does this mean? It's simple: as Citi chief economist Tobias Levkovich writes when looking at market returns following previous euphoria extremes, there is now a "100% historical probability of down markets in the next 12 months at current levels."
"Nasdaq Volume as % NYSE (though volatile), retail money market funds, margin debt, AAII & II bullishness, put/call premiums and NYSE short interest ratio all contributed to the elevated reading" according to Citi.
And just to make it extra confusing, in the same report Levkovich writes that "the normalized earnings yield gap analysis is 1.56 standard deviations below its 40-year average, yielding an 88% probability of higher markets in a year’s time, based on history." So... 100% probability the market will be lower and 88% probability it will be higher: brilliant.
It wasn't just Citi stunned by the record market euphoria: in his latest Flows and Liquidity report, JPM quant Nick Panigirtzoglou took a break from bashing bitcoin (well not really, more on that in a subsequent post, suffice to say anyone who listened to him and sold last Friday has missed out on 35% gains in the past week), and instead muses at the resilience of the market, driven by - what else - investor euphoria, to wit:
This week's Democratic sweep added more fuel to risk markets and pushed US government bond yields to new highs. Neither the violent scenes from Capitol Hill nor the potential negatives from a Democratic sweep, i.e. tax rises and stricter regulations, managed to unsettle risk markets this week. Risk markets exhibited similar resilience in December. At the time, neither the lack of any new policy impulse by the Fed, pension fund rebalancing flows nor fears about the UK variant of the virus managed to unnerve risk markets.
What, according to JPM, explains this remarkable resilience of equity and risk markets more generally since December? The answer is simple: central banks, or rather liquidity, "which appears to be reverberating once again in an intense manner via retail investors, in a repeat to Q2 of last year." Panigirtzoglou points to retail investors' activity, especially that of younger cohorts, and says that as the "anticipation of further US stimulus checks", or stimmies as they are better known...
... "this force is likely to be sustained over the coming weeks", JPM says and points to several indicators of euphoric retail trader activity including record call option trading both on exchange, which is forcing yet another gamma-squeeze (or as JPM puts it "To the extent this accumulation of long call options by retail investors continues, it could eventually result in a rise in vol via the delta-hedging of accumulated short call option positions by dealers taking the other side, similar to last August")...
... as well as off.
To quantify the latter, JPM looks at the six main OTC market venues used by retail brokers: Virtu Americas LLC, Citadel Execution Services, G1 execution services, Two Sigma Securities LLC, Wolverine Securities LLC and UBS Securities LLC. The chart below shows the aggregate share to OTC transaction routed to different market venues (destination flow) by retail brokers, again as percentage of total US equity market volume. After slowing during the third quarter, US retail activity has "rebounded strongly in November.
And this chart is only through November: one can only imagine that we will need a bigger chart for the December print here too.
In summary, JPM concludes that the record euphoria is due to "the liquidity force" - i.e., central banks and the latest round of fiscal stimulus - which "appears to be reverberating once again in an intense manner via retail investors, in a repeat of Q2 of last year. Given the anticipation of further fiscal support (e.g. additional US stimulus checks of $1400 to get to the original proposal of $2000), this force is likely to be sustained over the coming weeks."
